Last night was my demotion party as president of my Rotary Club. It was great fun reviewing all of the cook stuff we did during the year and getting roasted. However, I am looking forward to sitting in the back of the room and chit-chatting instead of having 60+ people watch me eat lunch.
I'm at complete loggerheads with a client. I won't bore you with the details, but I'm working with them to get some City money for job training. They have a completely delusional idea of what needs to be in the proposal. Another group is proposing something completely different, yet they want what I write to look like theirs. There have been other issues on the project. From my point of view they're slow turning things around and in paying me. They clearly don't see me as sufficiently compliant.
I've run into this problem a couple of other times in my consulting career (I've been doing this for nearly 20 years). However, at times like this that I wonder if it's me or them.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Libertarian Thoughts
I'm sooooooooooo late on this post. Oh well.
Earlier in the week, the Supreme Court ruled (5-4) that the 2nd Amendment covers individual gun ownership, but that the states can reasonably regulate it. Check out the ruling here. I missed the organized militia part, but that's OK.
This is an area where I stray from libertarian orthodoxy a bit in that I'm not that hung up on everyone being able to have a gun. Self-defense? According to the CDC, your more likely to have your gun turned on you or stolen and used in another crime that deterring a criminal. Sport? If the animal you're stalking isn't armed and you're a few hundred yards away from it, it doesn't seem like much of a contest. Just going outside, getting drunk and shooting at cans, skeet, whatever? Well, whatever turns you on, I suppose. Hunting your dinner? OK, I'm down with that.
What the ruling should have been called is the 2nd Amendment Lawyer Full Employment Act because now EVERY gun regulation in EVERY state is going to be challenged. The ruling makes clear that some regulations are OK with the Court, such as not allowing the mentally ill to have firearms (way to go out on a limb!). But, like with abortion rights, my reasonable regulation is your infringement of constitutional rights.
In some ways, the gun argument's been settled on the street. Anyone who wants just about any kind of firearm can get it, either through a shady gun show or the black market. I completely see the point of law abiding gun owners who complain about all of the hoops they have to jump through when Johnny Criminal just needs to come up with a few hundred dollars to get what he wants. There are always going to be people like my neighbor who want to have a gun for when "they" come down the street (I'm not sure who "they" are, but I'm thinking at some point it will be his son, the budding sociopath).
However, it seems reasonable that just as every other amendment in the Bill of Rights has limits that this one should as well. Previous violent offender? No gun for you. Had a restraining order? Sorry, bows and arrows only. The little voice inside your head told you to get that rifle? Uh...no.
In a related matter, ex-Georgia congressman Bob Barr is the Libertarian candidate for president. Mr. Barr's an interesting choice to lead the party because, well, um, when he was a congressman he didn't exactly let his libertarian flag fly. He led the rallying cry for Clinton's impeachment for coming on a young woman's dress and was a supporter of the war on drugs and the Patriot Act when he was in Congress. He has since claimed a conversion, though some are not so sure.
Like all niche movements, the Libertarian party is probably over concerned with idealogical purity. Also, the long time believers are always skeptical of those who have changed their minds (see Romney and the republicans). One also has to wonder what's the value of completely changing one's positions to run for office that he's not going to win. Maybe he just wants to stick it to the republicans after he was redistricted out of a job. Though helping Obama defeat McCain is a Pyrrhic victory for liberty at best.
Regardless, I'll take him at his word and vote for him. Every vote cast for the party hopefully takes us one step closer to getting the two major parties to think more about individual rights.
Earlier in the week, the Supreme Court ruled (5-4) that the 2nd Amendment covers individual gun ownership, but that the states can reasonably regulate it. Check out the ruling here. I missed the organized militia part, but that's OK.
This is an area where I stray from libertarian orthodoxy a bit in that I'm not that hung up on everyone being able to have a gun. Self-defense? According to the CDC, your more likely to have your gun turned on you or stolen and used in another crime that deterring a criminal. Sport? If the animal you're stalking isn't armed and you're a few hundred yards away from it, it doesn't seem like much of a contest. Just going outside, getting drunk and shooting at cans, skeet, whatever? Well, whatever turns you on, I suppose. Hunting your dinner? OK, I'm down with that.
What the ruling should have been called is the 2nd Amendment Lawyer Full Employment Act because now EVERY gun regulation in EVERY state is going to be challenged. The ruling makes clear that some regulations are OK with the Court, such as not allowing the mentally ill to have firearms (way to go out on a limb!). But, like with abortion rights, my reasonable regulation is your infringement of constitutional rights.
In some ways, the gun argument's been settled on the street. Anyone who wants just about any kind of firearm can get it, either through a shady gun show or the black market. I completely see the point of law abiding gun owners who complain about all of the hoops they have to jump through when Johnny Criminal just needs to come up with a few hundred dollars to get what he wants. There are always going to be people like my neighbor who want to have a gun for when "they" come down the street (I'm not sure who "they" are, but I'm thinking at some point it will be his son, the budding sociopath).
However, it seems reasonable that just as every other amendment in the Bill of Rights has limits that this one should as well. Previous violent offender? No gun for you. Had a restraining order? Sorry, bows and arrows only. The little voice inside your head told you to get that rifle? Uh...no.
In a related matter, ex-Georgia congressman Bob Barr is the Libertarian candidate for president. Mr. Barr's an interesting choice to lead the party because, well, um, when he was a congressman he didn't exactly let his libertarian flag fly. He led the rallying cry for Clinton's impeachment for coming on a young woman's dress and was a supporter of the war on drugs and the Patriot Act when he was in Congress. He has since claimed a conversion, though some are not so sure.
Like all niche movements, the Libertarian party is probably over concerned with idealogical purity. Also, the long time believers are always skeptical of those who have changed their minds (see Romney and the republicans). One also has to wonder what's the value of completely changing one's positions to run for office that he's not going to win. Maybe he just wants to stick it to the republicans after he was redistricted out of a job. Though helping Obama defeat McCain is a Pyrrhic victory for liberty at best.
Regardless, I'll take him at his word and vote for him. Every vote cast for the party hopefully takes us one step closer to getting the two major parties to think more about individual rights.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Dumb Polls
Yesterday, the LA Times screamed that Obama was leading McCain by 12 percentage points in their opinion polls. My first reaction was, "Big fucking deal? It's June." My second reaction was, "Man, could that be any more misleading?"
I do a lot of statistics as part of my job, so bear with me here. The poll is misleading because it was based on national opinions, but that's not how our presidential elections are scored. A more accurate poll would show which candidate is leading in which states and how that adds up in the electoral vote (see Bush v. Gore, 2000). Also, note that not all polls are equally accurate.
Good pollsters divide their samples into many groups (white men over 40, Hispanic females with children, etc) as they have different voting rates, regardless of what they say is their likelihood of voting. This year, one of the big wild cards could be the African-American vote. Obama's candidacy raises the question as to whether African-Americans will vote in greater numbers (which the polls can right now only guess at) in November than in past elections.
Don't necessarily be thrown by the excitement in the primaries as the turnout between them and the general election is not as highly correlated than you think. Also, Republicans only tend to get a sliver of the African-American vote (Bush got about 9%, and that was after some serious ass-kissing with some black evangelicals) anyway, so it's not as if Obama will get a much higher percentage. The big question is whether more African-Americans will come out and vote. The pollsters who have a bead on that will be the most accurate.
Newspapers and websites LOVE polls because they are a short-cut to discussing the real issues. Just be sure you read a bit more into them before deciding if they are telling you anything meaningful.
I do a lot of statistics as part of my job, so bear with me here. The poll is misleading because it was based on national opinions, but that's not how our presidential elections are scored. A more accurate poll would show which candidate is leading in which states and how that adds up in the electoral vote (see Bush v. Gore, 2000). Also, note that not all polls are equally accurate.
Good pollsters divide their samples into many groups (white men over 40, Hispanic females with children, etc) as they have different voting rates, regardless of what they say is their likelihood of voting. This year, one of the big wild cards could be the African-American vote. Obama's candidacy raises the question as to whether African-Americans will vote in greater numbers (which the polls can right now only guess at) in November than in past elections.
Don't necessarily be thrown by the excitement in the primaries as the turnout between them and the general election is not as highly correlated than you think. Also, Republicans only tend to get a sliver of the African-American vote (Bush got about 9%, and that was after some serious ass-kissing with some black evangelicals) anyway, so it's not as if Obama will get a much higher percentage. The big question is whether more African-Americans will come out and vote. The pollsters who have a bead on that will be the most accurate.
Newspapers and websites LOVE polls because they are a short-cut to discussing the real issues. Just be sure you read a bit more into them before deciding if they are telling you anything meaningful.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Scratch Any Cynic and You’ll Find a Disappointed Idealist
I was resisting writing about George Carlin's passing for two reasons. One, it totally lacks of originality and doubt I have any additional insights. Second, the one time I saw him, he sucked.
I loved watching him, whether on the first SNL, on an HBO special or in Dogma. This all made the live performance even more disappointing. It was in Vegas and my wife and I got the sense that he was just starting out some new material for a special and it just wasn't quite good yet. The political observations were run of the mill and the language wasn't sharp. It was all cunt this and bitch that. It just seemed below him.
The only similar experience I had was seeing Bob Dylan when I was in grad school. I was never a huge Dylan fan, but I figured it was a unique opportunity. Oh, and the woman I was fucking was into him. I understand that he's not Mr. Warm and Fuzzy on stage, but it was like he didn't give a shit. He just kind blew through the songs and that was that. But, I digress.
Besides being funnier than hell, Carlin showed us how words really matter and how euphemisms take the place of truth. That made him valuable and entertaining. Now go out and shout the 7 dirty words you could never say on TV.
I loved watching him, whether on the first SNL, on an HBO special or in Dogma. This all made the live performance even more disappointing. It was in Vegas and my wife and I got the sense that he was just starting out some new material for a special and it just wasn't quite good yet. The political observations were run of the mill and the language wasn't sharp. It was all cunt this and bitch that. It just seemed below him.
The only similar experience I had was seeing Bob Dylan when I was in grad school. I was never a huge Dylan fan, but I figured it was a unique opportunity. Oh, and the woman I was fucking was into him. I understand that he's not Mr. Warm and Fuzzy on stage, but it was like he didn't give a shit. He just kind blew through the songs and that was that. But, I digress.
Besides being funnier than hell, Carlin showed us how words really matter and how euphemisms take the place of truth. That made him valuable and entertaining. Now go out and shout the 7 dirty words you could never say on TV.
McCain Quits California
It's not as if he was going to win the state anyway, but John McCain officially quit trying to win California in November by announcing that he would try to lift the ban on off-shore oil drilling. Like the liberals in Cape Cod who don't want their views ruined by a tiny windmill in the distance, the conservatives along the CA coast don't want to look out at oil rigs. The guys with the money remember the Santa Barbara spills and almost all of the elected Republican officials here are against it, including Ahnahld. It's really a non-starter here.
McCain's strategy appears to be to "sacrifice" CA in order to appease folks in Ohio or PA or other close states. But, here's the thing: drilling off the coast of CA, TX or FL may have an effect on oil prices in the future, but it won't do shit about them now. Also, it's pandering because lifting the moratorium leaves drilling up to the states and there's no way CA would go for it. FL's governor Crist has obviously started his campaign for VP by changing his position on the issue, but there's no guarantee that they would allow drilling.
This also shows that McCain thinks more about tactics (get more oil) than strategy (how do we become less dependent on fossil fuels) when it comes to his energy policy. When we chase a finite resource (oil or ethanol) there will always be shortages and price spikes because of supply and demand pressures. The huge run-up in food prices should be teaching him that. There will be ancillary costs to using any type of energy (even solar power requires the manufacturing of collectors and use of habitat for solar farms and transmission), but at least the source is as close to infinite as it gets. With this change in position, McCain shows that he's only interested in an energy policy that will keep the tank full for the rest of his life.
McCain's strategy appears to be to "sacrifice" CA in order to appease folks in Ohio or PA or other close states. But, here's the thing: drilling off the coast of CA, TX or FL may have an effect on oil prices in the future, but it won't do shit about them now. Also, it's pandering because lifting the moratorium leaves drilling up to the states and there's no way CA would go for it. FL's governor Crist has obviously started his campaign for VP by changing his position on the issue, but there's no guarantee that they would allow drilling.
This also shows that McCain thinks more about tactics (get more oil) than strategy (how do we become less dependent on fossil fuels) when it comes to his energy policy. When we chase a finite resource (oil or ethanol) there will always be shortages and price spikes because of supply and demand pressures. The huge run-up in food prices should be teaching him that. There will be ancillary costs to using any type of energy (even solar power requires the manufacturing of collectors and use of habitat for solar farms and transmission), but at least the source is as close to infinite as it gets. With this change in position, McCain shows that he's only interested in an energy policy that will keep the tank full for the rest of his life.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Playing Dress-Up
I wrote yesterday about getting all dressed-up for an event. BTW--the HB chose the Tabasco tie.
The event was OK, but poorly planned. First, it was $95/person, and that didn't include parking or wine with dinner. Second, there were only two bars for about 250 people which was far short of what was necessary.
Afterwards, we took advantage of the free babysitting (the HB was at the nephew's) and went looking for a bar downtown. In LA this is tougher than you would imagine. One place was jam packed since the nearby theater just got out, and another place about a block away was closing up, even though it was close to the theater (this was before 11pm). So, we went to the bar at the Biltmore. It's got great wood floors and a fabulous ceiling. The band was OK (better if you are into Sade and the like), but it was cool and the drinks were good.
The event was OK, but poorly planned. First, it was $95/person, and that didn't include parking or wine with dinner. Second, there were only two bars for about 250 people which was far short of what was necessary.
Afterwards, we took advantage of the free babysitting (the HB was at the nephew's) and went looking for a bar downtown. In LA this is tougher than you would imagine. One place was jam packed since the nearby theater just got out, and another place about a block away was closing up, even though it was close to the theater (this was before 11pm). So, we went to the bar at the Biltmore. It's got great wood floors and a fabulous ceiling. The band was OK (better if you are into Sade and the like), but it was cool and the drinks were good.
Belated Brewing
Last Sunday I just had the hankering to brew. I figured I would invite someone over to help out or hold off until Thursday when my normal brew buddy came over. But, my neighbor was up for it, so we brewed.
We whipped up a brown ale (think Newcastle, but with more hops). The recipe was interesting in that it called for the grains to be steeped in a separate vessel from dissolving the malt. Usually I'll steep then add the malt in the same pot. Using smaller amounts of liquid made the temperatures easier to manage, so if this comes out good I'll use the technique again.
I'm a little concerned about the heat and its effect on the fermentation. It's fermenting in a closet in a north facing room, so it's the coolest place in the house. But, yeast likes things at about 72 degree Fahrenheit, and I know that it's warmer than that in there now. Things should start cooling down tonight, so I may just have to give it an extra day or two for the yeast to get going again.
I'll bottle it in about a week or so (after fermentation), then it would be ready to drink in two more weeks after that. But, I'll give it another 4 weeks so the tastes really start to come together.
All this beer talk is making me thirsty. I'll make my next post after I pop one open.
We whipped up a brown ale (think Newcastle, but with more hops). The recipe was interesting in that it called for the grains to be steeped in a separate vessel from dissolving the malt. Usually I'll steep then add the malt in the same pot. Using smaller amounts of liquid made the temperatures easier to manage, so if this comes out good I'll use the technique again.
I'm a little concerned about the heat and its effect on the fermentation. It's fermenting in a closet in a north facing room, so it's the coolest place in the house. But, yeast likes things at about 72 degree Fahrenheit, and I know that it's warmer than that in there now. Things should start cooling down tonight, so I may just have to give it an extra day or two for the yeast to get going again.
I'll bottle it in about a week or so (after fermentation), then it would be ready to drink in two more weeks after that. But, I'll give it another 4 weeks so the tastes really start to come together.
All this beer talk is making me thirsty. I'll make my next post after I pop one open.
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